Monday, November 10, 2008

THIS is what we're facing...

Gang,

I have two stories that I really need you to read.

First up, Itulip.com is predicting that our New Great Depression will cause up to TEN (10,000,000) MILLION people to lose their jobs and...

Second, the New York Times, in their article entitled, Stunned Icelanders Struggle After Economy’s Fall writes:

By SARAH LYALL
Published: November 8, 2008

REYKJAVIK, Iceland — The collapse came so fast it seemed unreal, impossible. One woman here compared it to being hit by a train. Another said she felt as if she were watching it through a window. Another said, “It feels like you’ve been put in a prison, and you don’t know what you did wrong.”

This country, as modern and sophisticated as it is geographically isolated, still seems to be in shock. But if the events of last month — the failure of Iceland’s banks; the plummeting of its currency; the first wave of layoffs; the loss of reputation abroad — felt like a bad dream, Iceland has now awakened to find that it is all coming true.

It is not as if Reykjavik, where about two-thirds of the country’s 300,000 people live, is filled with bread lines or homeless shanties or looters smashing store windows. But this city, until recently the center of one of the world’s fastest economic booms, is now the unhappy site of one of its great crashes. It is impossible to meet anyone here who has not been profoundly affected by the financial crisis.

Overnight, people lost their savings. Prices are soaring. Once-crowded restaurants are almost empty. Banks are rationing foreign currency, and companies are finding it dauntingly difficult to do business abroad. Inflation is at 16 percent and rising. People have stopped traveling overseas. The local currency, the krona, was 65 to the dollar a year ago; now it is 130. Companies are slashing salaries, reducing workers’ hours and, in some instances, embarking on mass layoffs.

“No country has ever crashed as quickly and as badly in peacetime,” said Jon Danielsson, an economist with the London School of Economics.

The loss goes beyond the personal, shattering a proud country’s sense of itself.

“Years ago, I would say that I was Icelandic and people might say, ‘Oh, where’s that?’ ” said Katrin Runolfsdottir, 49, who was fired from her secretarial job on Oct. 31. “That was fine. But now there’s this image of us being overspenders, thieves.”

Aldis Nordfjord, a 53-year-old architect, also lost her job last month. So did all 44 of her co-workers — everyone in the company except its owners. As many as 75 percent of Iceland’s private-sector architects have probably beenfired in the past few weeks, she said...


PLEASE read these articles carefully. Understand that we are just like Iceland.

On second thought, no... we are many multi-trillions of dollars MORE vulnerable than Iceland. What happened there, will happen here in time, and what happens here will be much, much worse.

UNLESS we as a country do the right things, and quickly, we are either headed for the Depression style scenario that the I-Tulip folks are talking about or... we are headed for a currency collapse similar to the Icelandic folk.

Please prepare yourselves accordingly, and speak with your licensed financial adviser before making any decisions.

If you and your planner decide that gold is part of your overall preparedness strategy, I would humbly encourage you to check out Gainesvillecoins.com.

No, I'm not getting paid by them or anything, but I am suggesting them to you because I have placed quite a few orders with them, and I've had no problems whatsoever.

These days, I like American Gold or Silver Eagles, and I try to pick up Austrian Philharmonic coins whenever I can. Coins minted by governments have a higher price than basic bullion coins, but they tend to trade easier. If one is simply going to buy metals to hold onto for a rainy day, I'd rather go with a government minted coin. Takes a lot of the guesswork out of the equation.

In any event, buying gold and silver coinage with Gainesville is just like buying anything else online... go to the site, choose the coins you want, put in your credit card and your mailing address, and Presto, real money arrives in your mailbox.

You will have successfully traded in your U.S. dollars for a currency that will survive the upcoming storm. It should be noted however that gold and silver, being as volatile as they are, can go up or down in price. And for goodness sake... don't take out a loan in order to speculate on the gold price. Just think of gold and silver as an insurance policy, and you'll be aiight.

Once again, before you place any orders, check with your financial adviser to see if precious metals are something that is right for you. While I know what is going on in a general sense, I have no idea about your risk tolerance, or your unique financial situation.

Ok?

But whatever you do, Ladies and Gents, get yo' shit together.

Toku.


*****
*****

UPDATE:

Another good film I need you to watch:

I.O.U.S.A: The Short Version.

As you watch, please keep in mind that the overall amount of the liabilities mentioned is much higher... to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars.

Please watch and understand why getting your affairs in order is absolutely crucial... and one also needs to have some non U.S. dollar assets in their portfolio, in the event that the U.S. Dollar is devalued at the upcoming G-20 economic summit.

A lot is happening in the world of finance these days... and none of it looks to favorable for U.S. Citizens in the long term.

Out.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Toku,

What do you think about these rebuttals that say america really isn't losing it's unilateral sovereighnty? I was discussing the condition of America with another blog and these are the article he gave me. Methinks ht eblogger is in denial...just a lil bit.

Blog Post: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/InformationDissemination/~3/444138482/arbiter-enforcer-hegemon.html

Article: (which I haven’t gotten to yet, but the snippet above is from it)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903202.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Kirigakure said...

Balanced,

I would first say that the author has a point... our mindset will largely dictate our future prosperity.

But what the author isn't saying is that the kinds of thoughts, and the policies that we enact are going to determine if we remain in the number one spot.

America is on the decline because we have based our society around ideals that are impracticable and violate Universal laws.

Feminism, No fault Divorce, Restraining Orders for fun and profit...

Massive bailouts to corrupt banks and businesses, borrowing and spending instead of saving and investing, wars financed by our enemies...

Reduced purchasing power of the people, inflation, the collectivist, socialist mindset...

So forth and so on.

The author mentions popularity surveys and things that happened in the past to bolster his arguments but, in my view, most of what he mentions is irrelevant.

While other nations are having their problems too, that's not important to answer this question.

The key focus should be, what is our mindset, and what is our policy?

So in summary, we need to do the right things in order to achieve the success enjoyed by past generations, and sometimes, doing the right thing is hard.

And right now, the people and the decision makers haven't felt enough pain yet. When things get really bad, then and only then will we seek out the correct social, financial, monetary, and political policies that lead to wealth, peace, and prosperity.

If we keep on doing the wrong things, like we are doing right now, then our economic, political, military, and diplomatic power will wither and die, guaranteed.

It's only a question of time.

Elusive Wapiti said...

Iceland is getting a taste of hyper-inflation. It's coming here to a country near you, too.

Kirigakure said...

"Iceland is getting a taste of hyper-inflation."

Without a doubt. The only question is... When?

. said...

You know, there is one thing that really bothers me about the current economic situation - and it is that currently there is virtually a universal consensus that the markets are screwed, and will only get worse.

Now, anyone who follows markets knows that when there is complete consensus, it is time to go contrarian.

A few months ago, oil was at $140, and there was nearly universal consensus that it was going to go straight to $200 - but it didn't.

Today, there is nearly universal consensus that oil/commodoties are going to continue to plummet and that the west in ***guaranteed*** to go through a long, protracted recession/depression. Is this the truth or is there so much consensus that being a contrarian is the proper course?

Now, I was about 50% invested when the market really soured a month or two ago, and granted, I lost some money (I was only mainly gold stocks, which sold off as people were liquidating), but, I have also been picking up some stocks, even though some of these have dropped since as well. But, for example, I picked up the Bank of Montreal (on the TSX) at $38.00/share, and it pays $2.80/yr dividends. That is better than a 7% yield. I've also picked up a few other Canadian banks that are/were paying between 5-6% dividend yields. Not one of the 5 major Canadian banks have cut their dividend in something like 40 years or more - not through the savings and loan crisis, nor the early 80's consumer led recessions and so on. Canadian banks are in a much different situation than American banks, and do not have trillions of bad debt on the books, because we are regulated to death here. The stocks dropped 50% in value based on panic and fear, and specifically, fear that the US economy will affect everyone else's - true, but, what will survive?

Also, I've been picking up some more gold stocks. Goldcorp is a tremendous company that is currently trading in the mid-$20's, but, has been as high as $45-50 not too long ago. Now, Goldcorp did a merger around 2 years ago with another gold company, but up until that time, the original CEO/Founder (Rob McEwen) had been operating the company by using the gold they mined as their own financial currency - as in, they mined the gold, and only sold exactly as much gold as they needed to raise cash for future operating expenses, and all of the profit they kept physically in Gold Bullion, speculating on the future rise in gold prices.

Now, I am not sure if they are still stockpiling their profits in physical gold or not, but, it gets me thinking... many of the equities are getting hammered because the chances of them securing future financing or operating cash is seriously in doubt... but, can the same be said for gold companies? They, um, mine money, so, if anyone has a chance of circumventing the financial crisis (you know, like not having money to pay your employees), it HAS to be gold companies that get by the easiest, cause they can pay with gold. Neat how that works!

Also, some of these juniors have dropped to ridiculous levels. I picked up a junior the other week called Terrane Metals (during a mother of a bad day - an 800 point drop day) and I got it for $0.11/share - 25,000 frickin thousand of them, lol! Not a big investment by my usual standards, but, I have been following this company for nearly a year, while it was at $0.50 to $0.60/share, and was hoping to buy it if it fell to the mid $0.30's. This company is currently developing a large open pit gold mine to open in 2012, and had previously secured financing for its development by forming a partnership with the aforementioned Goldcorp (one of the largest Gold producers around), so...

Sorry to be long winded, but, it just seems to me that things are TOO negative, and that the outlook is TOO bleak.

The markets have WAY over discounted things because there is universal consensus that the market is screwed. That, of course, is not a market. A market includes buyers and sellers. This market is only sellers.

Plus, for you guys in the States, I don't know if the US dollar is always on the forefront of one's mind when analyzing stock situations.

For example, while I own mainly non-US stocks, I do own a few, like Google which I purchased way back near the IPO. It sucked to watch the US dollar drop as my stocks went up, because it ate away my profits (by 20%), but, now that stocks like Google have been falling, the US dollar has also been rising, which is countering the downturn on my US assets.

Take Gold, for example... yes, it has dropped considerably, but, also, gold is valued in US dollars. So, for a company that is mining gold in Canada or Australia or whatever, 6 months ago, they were mining gold at around $900.00/oz, but the two nation's currencies (US/Canada), were virtually at par. Today, gold is at around US$720.00/oz but, the US/Canada exchange rate has changed, and now a Canuck Buck is worth only US$0.8135. So... 6 months ago, Canuck miners were receiving around CAD$900 per oz of gold when the CAD/USD was at par. Today, Canuck miners are recieving CAD$885 per oz of gold. Hardly a difference at all, if they are operating in Canadian dollars.

Oil is the same thing. Sure, it may be at US$57 or so, but, in Canuck bucks, one bbl of oil is worth CAD$70.00.

So really, as long a we allow the dipshit economists to value all things in US dollars as "reserve currency" we don't really get proper perspective on the situation. Gasp, yes, oil and gold have dropped - or... have they? They certain haven't for the rest of the world, only for the USA - and, the USA is fast losing its position as the economic engine of the world. The US dollar has risen against ALL currencies, including gold... so, for the other 6.4 Billion people in the world that aren't Americans, how much have commodoties really dropped in value? Not much. In Canadian dollars, gold is still trading at $885.00/oz, the same that it was only a couple of months ago - only the value of the US currency has changed.

Now, of course, the whole world could go to hell in a handbasket, and the monetary & banking system could collapse... pretty crappy, indeed. But, aside from Gold, you certainly wouldn't want to have cash money in the bank if the shit hits the fan. The last thing you would want is cash money.

What you want are hard assets - like gold coins, real estate and so on... AND, aren't equities assets?(that survive an economic crisis - I know, I know, but you could also lose your debt free home by way of spiraling property taxes, or the gov't can pass estate taxes which are paid annually and so on).

If you own stock in a company through a massive crash - and your goal is strictly to preserve capital that comes out the other side in reasonable economic shape, stocks are not THAT bad of an investment - certainly not as bad as cash. Of course, they can issue more shares to dilute your value in much the same way that government causes inflation, but, on the other hand, companies own real, hard assets, such as buildings, land, equipment, resource rights etc., and regardless of the economic activity, so long as the company survives and comes out the other side still breathing, it will be a protection against inflation. If the price of a loaf of bread goes from $1.50 to $15.00, you can bet that you won't be able to purchase Merck for any $27.00/share either - a Merck share will likely be worth around $270.00/share if such inflation were to take place, just like your $150,000 home would skyrocket up to $1.5 Million in value.

Phew, lots of verbal diarrhea from Rob. But, as skeptical as I usually am about the future economic situation, I am beginning to doubt more and more that things are really as bad as they seem.

Hey, a typical recession knocks the markets down around 30%. But, even BEFORE we entered a recession, they hype and panic was so great and rapid, that we have knocked 45% off the markets - and we haven't even entered the supposed upcoming tough times yet.

Like I said, I am not one who believes in a rosy economic future for the west, but, this is TOO much TOO fast.

You can't find one single friggin guy out there with a positive outlook on the markets and that usually indicates something... like one should be zigging while everyone else is zagging. The same way that one should have been zaggin 6 months ago when everyone else was zigging up a universal consensus on $200.00 Oil.

Now, go forth, young man, and become Warren Buffet.

Anonymous said...

Going contrarian requires starting money.

Also, it's instructive to look at gold prices in Euros.

Side by side with USD, it's like two different gold markets.

The USD went up recently because people needed to cash out investments into USD to pay international debts. Thus gold looks weaker than it is ... if you calculate in USD.